Admin Appeal Spreadsheet

[Fracket]

Admin Appeal Spreadsheet

I created a Spreadsheet that tells you what the chances you have to be unbanned by an admin and the chances for your Dispute to be Accepted.
A number of admins may not be on here as this data is from all appeals since January 1st 2026. If an admins name is not on there, it means that they have not been active enough for their data to be accurate.

Admin Bans

docs.google.com

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[exrobite]

sample sizes are too small to give an accurate estimation for the target parameter and the chance of each ban appeal being accepted is not independently identically distributed

the outcome of a ban apology or dispute could be modeled as a bernoulli random variable with the probability distribution:



where X is a random variable representing the outcome of the dispute that takes the form 1 when accepted and 0 when denied. We say that X ~ Bern(p) where p is the parameter we are trying to estimate.

A good, unbiased estimator for p is indeed just the expected value (or the observed amount of successes divided by the total amount of trials.) But this requires each observation to follow the exact same distribution, or have the same p. It can be empirically observed that they do not, as some appeals have more merit than others.

There is no information here that is useful except perhaps how many invalid bans staff members are handing out.

 

[Fracket]

I am a big poopy head

 

[Creepis]

Time to get that unban, lets goo!! W!

 

[exrobite]

i do say this often

 

[Fracket]

sample sizes are too small to give an accurate estimation for the target parameter and the chance of each ban appeal being accepted is not independently identically distributed

I would but it would take me 6 hours picking out and sorting the names because people are too retarded to spell admin names correctly

 

[Vollgas]

Also this does not take into account people who submit appeals destined at Admin Meetings but use the staff member's name on the thread name.

 

[Fracket]

Also this does not take into account people who submit appeals destined at Admin Meetings but use the staff member's name on the thread name.

I removed all console and admin meeting bans as it would take me another 4 hours to look through all of them

 

[Medium]

It also does not take into account amount of reports done. The more reports someone does, the more apologies or disputes they might get. It also does not take into account severity of punishments. Some appeals simply get denied because they did something to cause that, behaviour wise or record wise.

It is a fun thing to track but without access to more data it will always be incredibly inaccurate

 

[Akeno Via]

I believe you're not taking into account another sample group, such as those with a horrible record.
I get where you're coming at, but you would actually have to figure out more before coming to a conclusion.

 

[Draxen]

100% on me, yikes

 

[exrobite]

100% on me, yikes

 

[kerzify]

This sheet is factually wrong!

I've had 10 disputes made on my bans, 3 of them being accepted and 7 of them being denied! (I feel I've also done more than 5 appeals...)

 

[Fracket]

Goodluck @MalekIsWeird you have a 7.69% to be unbanned in a month!

 

[Medium]

View attachment 30178

Luckily his job is developing, useless at doing reports

 

[notlilcade]

This is hilarious, I feel like I mentioned someone had to have this like a week and a half ago and low and behold someone does. Imagine an API that automatically tracks and updates this overtime lmao

 

[peeps]

I have accepted 100% of the 0 apologies I have recieved.

 

[Headline]

I'm still a staff member? Who forgot to tell me that one?

 

[Medium]

I'm still a staff member? Who forgot to tell me that one?

It was all just a nightmare